Assumed competence while overlooking unseen information in decision-making

Feifei Wang, The Centre for Information Technology in Education, The University of Hong Kong

People interpret the same information in various ways, often believing their own views are objectively true while dismissing opposing perspectives as ignorant or biased. This can have serious implications for decision-makers in education and other fields. A recent study examined how people assume they have enough information to make decisions, even when they are missing key details. For example, a driver may impatiently honk at a car waiting at a stop sign, only to discover an unseen mother pushing her stroller across the street. This reveals how mistaken assumptions about having complete information can lead to misunderstandings.

To investigate the “unknown unknowns” in decision-making, (i.e., we don’t know what we don’t know), Gehlbach and colleagues conducted a study of decision-making. Participants (n=1261) read an article about a school threatened by a drying aquifer, faced with the decision to either merge with another school or remain independent. They were randomly assigned to three groups based on the information presented in the article: pro-merge, pro-separate, and a control that received balanced arguments for both options. Subjects were mostly male (59%) and White (71%), with a mean age of 39.8 years and a median education level of three years of college.

Results showed that compared to the control group, the two treatment groups assumed that they had adequate information and were capable of making informed decisions. Their decisions were heavily influenced by the subset of information they received. They also believed that most other people would arrive at similar decisions. This study suggests that in a world of unreliable information, recognizing what information may be missing and approaching decisions with humility and curiosity can help us better understand others’ perspectives before passing judgment.