How the Pandemic Hurt Older K–12 Students: What Educators Need to Know

Summary

By Daniel Mollenkamp, EdSurge

Source: https://www.edsurge.com/news/2026-01-09-are-schools-underestimating...

More than six years after widespread COVID-19 school closures, data suggest that older K–12 students may have suffered deeper and more persistent learning losses than their younger peers. While national attention has often focused on early elementary learning loss, recent research indicates that students who were older when the pandemic hit have experienced steeper declines and slower recovery trajectories in both reading and math.

The analysis centers on research led by The Hamilton Project at Brookings that followed cohorts of students who were in kindergarten through seventh grade during the 2019–20 school year. By comparing actual post-pandemic proficiency rates in English and mathematics to what would have been expected if the pandemic had not occurred, researchers conducted counterfactual modeling that reveals troubling trends: the older a student was at the onset of the pandemic, the more severe the declines in academic performance.

Understanding Age-Related Impact

Lauren Bauer, a Brookings fellow whose observations initially inspired this approach, noticed early on that older students in informal learning pods seemed to struggle more than their younger peers. This observation has since been supported by data and cohort analyses. For example, students who were in fourth grade when pandemic closures began—now likely in ninth grade—show larger deficits compared to students who were in kindergarten at the time and are now in fourth grade.

This pattern may relate to the cumulative nature of middle and high school content: older students had already accumulated several years of grade-level learning that was disrupted, and their curricula rely heavily on prior knowledge. In math especially—where each concept builds on previous understanding—the disruption’s effects are pronounced because gaps in foundational knowledge can cascade into subsequent grades.

National Assessment Trends

This Brookings analysis aligns with recent findings from the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP)—often called the “nation’s report card”—which has shown historic declines in both math and reading across multiple grade levels since the pandemic. These score drops are widespread and substantial, particularly among low-performing students who appear to be in “free fall,” though NAEP analysts caution that declines in performance began even before 2020.

The convergence of multiple data sources reinforces the picture: learning loss is not uniformly distributed and may persist for years, not just months, especially for older students who experienced disruption after they had already built substantial academic foundations.

Recovery Challenges and Policy Responses

District leaders report that while some schools have mostly resumed pre-pandemic instructional routines, many continue to struggle to close gaps. Compounding this, federal recovery dollars (such as ESSER funds) have largely expired, leaving some districts without sustained resources for intensive interventions like tutoring, extended learning time, and additional staffing.

In response, several states are considering or piloting changes to assessment systems. Rather than relying solely on a single end-of-year standardized test, at least 13 states are exploring year-round or interim assessment models that may provide a more nuanced and timely view of student progress, enabling educators to respond earlier when interventions are needed. Proponents argue that such assessments could produce a more accurate barometer of recovery over time.

However, these proposals have sparked controversy. Some states, including Oklahoma, Alaska, and Wisconsin, have been criticized for adjusting their post-pandemic proficiency standards in ways that make it difficult to discern whether improvements reflect real learning gains or shifts in measurement.

Implications for Educators

For instructional leaders and classroom teachers, the Brookings findings suggest that recovery efforts should balance support across all grade spans. While early literacy and numeracy remain vital, middle and high school students may require equal or greater targeted interventions to address accumulated deficits and prepare for future coursework. This may include:

• Grade-level instruction paired with scaffolded support rather than retreat to easier content

• Intensive tutoring and small-group interventions

• Formative assessment systems that provide real-time diagnostics

• Differentiated instruction based on specific skill gaps

• Expanded professional learning focused on adolescent literacy and mathematics

Understanding the relative impact of the pandemic across age groups is critical to allocating resources wisely and designing instructional strategies that meet student needs in 2026 and beyond.

Original Article

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Prepared with the assistance of AI software

OpenAI. (2025). ChatGPT (4) [Large language model]. https://chat.openai.com