Poll Hints at Tight Race on Education Issues

Political independents give presumptive GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney an edge over President Barack Obama when it comes to which candidate would be better in strengthening public education, according to a poll released today by Phi Delta Kappa and Gallup.

The former Massachusetts governor takes a 46 percent to 41 percent lead over President Obama on that score among those identifying themselves as independents in what is expected to be a tight election.

But among all respondents in the PDK/Gallup national survey, Mr. Obama has the lead when it comes to which candidate would be better on education policy. Forty-nine percent of respondents said that if they were voting only on which candidate would be better positioned to improve public schools, they would choose Mr. Obama, while 44 percent said they would select Mr. Romney.

The poll's national sample of 1,002 adults 18 and older has a 4 percentage-point margin of error, although PDK/Gallup says that margin of error is higher in the case of subsamples.

An edge for either candidate among independent voters could matter, given that Democrats and Republicans responding to the poll overwhelmingly trust their own party on education issues. For instance, 88 percent of Democrats surveyed said Mr. Obama would be the better choice to fix the nation’s schools, and 88 percent of Republicans favored Mr. Romney.

“More than ever, we sense a hardening of viewpoints on public education,” William Bushaw, the executive director of Phi Delta Kappa International, said in a telephone interview with reporters yesterday.

Public Attitudes Toward Public Education

Phi Delta Kappa and the Gallup organization surveyed a national sample of adults age 18 and up from may 7 to June 10 on a wide range of issues involving American public education in their 44th annual poll on the topic. Among the questions:

SOURCE: PDK/Gallup poll, 2012

The poll, the 44th annual survey on public attitudes toward the public schools by the Bloomington, Ind.-based education group and the Washington-based polling organization, was conducted from May 7 to June 10. Twenty-eight percent of respondents were Republicans, 36 percent were Democrats, and 35 percent were independents. An additional 1 percent did not designate an affiliation.

In addition to the political questions, the poll touched on the public’s views on such topics as overall school quality, common standards, education funding, and teacher evaluation.

Independents’ Attitudes

Mr. Romney’s edge among independents in the poll may seem surprising, given that the Obama administration has devoted significant energy—and money—to K-12 issues. Analysts from different political perspectives who took part in the call with journalists had different explanations for the lead.

“I think we’re seeing the most negative campaign that we’ve ever ever seen. ... A lot of his accomplishments are being lost,” Lily Eskelsen, the vice president of the National Education Association, which has endorsed Mr. Obama, said of the incumbent. “Saving teachers’ jobs to keep class size from exploding, those kinds of things don’t necessarily make headlines.”

But Chester E. Finn Jr., the president of the Thomas B. Fordham Institute, a think tank in Washington, had a different explanation.

“I’m guessing that a good part of the reason for that is that [Mr. Romney] was governor of an educationally successful state,” said Mr. Finn, who served in the U.S. Department of Education during the Reagan administration. That gives Mr. Romney “a track record of accomplishment that I don’t think [Sen. John] McCain could have claimed,” he said, referring the GOP’s 2008 nominee.

Back in 2008, respondents in the PDK/Gallup poll conducted prior to their respective nominations gave Mr. Obama, then a senator from Illinois, a big edge over Sen. McCain when it came to which candidate would be more likely to improve public schools. Forty-six percent of voters at that time said they trusted Mr. Obama more on K-12, while just 29 percent favored Mr. McCain.

Policy Priorities

In this year’s poll, respondents also overwhelmingly reported that ...

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