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Newspaper: Test scores suspicious across US
Newspaper: Test
scores suspicious
across US
scores suspicious
across US
Atlanta Advertiser
ATLANTA — Hundreds of school systems
nationwide exhibit suspicious test scores
that point to the possibility of cheating,
according to an investigation by The Atlanta
Journal-Constitution.
The newspaper examined test results for
70,000 public schools and found high
concentrations of scores in school systems
from coast to coast.
The analysis doesn't prove cheating. It
reveals that scores in hundreds of cities
followed a pattern that, in Atlanta,
indicated cheating in multiple schools.
The AJC reported in 2008 and 2009 about
statistically improbable jumps in test
scores within the 109-school Atlanta Public
Schools system. Those reports led to an
investigation by Georgia officials, which
found that at least 180 principals, teachers
and other staff took part in widespread
test-tampering in the 50,000-student
district.
In Sunday's editions, the AJC reports that
196 of the nation's 3,125 largest school
districts had enough suspect test results
that the odds of the results occurring
naturally were less than one in 1,000.
For 33 districts nationwide, the odds of
nationwide exhibit suspicious test scores
that point to the possibility of cheating,
according to an investigation by The Atlanta
Journal-Constitution.
The newspaper examined test results for
70,000 public schools and found high
concentrations of scores in school systems
from coast to coast.
The analysis doesn't prove cheating. It
reveals that scores in hundreds of cities
followed a pattern that, in Atlanta,
indicated cheating in multiple schools.
The AJC reported in 2008 and 2009 about
statistically improbable jumps in test
scores within the 109-school Atlanta Public
Schools system. Those reports led to an
investigation by Georgia officials, which
found that at least 180 principals, teachers
and other staff took part in widespread
test-tampering in the 50,000-student
district.
In Sunday's editions, the AJC reports that
196 of the nation's 3,125 largest school
districts had enough suspect test results
that the odds of the results occurring
naturally were less than one in 1,000.
For 33 districts nationwide, the odds of
their test scores occurring naturally were
worse than one in a million.
Standardized test scores have been at the
forefront of national and local efforts to
improve schools. Test performance was the
centerpiece of the federal No Child Left
Behind Act of 2001, which demanded
higher classroom accountability. Tougher
teacher evaluations that many states are
rolling out place more weight than ever on
the tests.
But the AJC report found that the sweeping
policy shifts rely on test results that may be
unreliable.
While the federal government requires
states to use standardized testing, it does
not require educators to screen scores for
anomalies or investigate those that turn up.
"If we are going to make important
decisions based on test results — and we
ought to be doing that — we have to make
important decisions about how we are
going to ensure their trustworthiness," said
worse than one in a million.
Standardized test scores have been at the
forefront of national and local efforts to
improve schools. Test performance was the
centerpiece of the federal No Child Left
Behind Act of 2001, which demanded
higher classroom accountability. Tougher
teacher evaluations that many states are
rolling out place more weight than ever on
the tests.
But the AJC report found that the sweeping
policy shifts rely on test results that may be
unreliable.
While the federal government requires
states to use standardized testing, it does
not require educators to screen scores for
anomalies or investigate those that turn up.
"If we are going to make important
decisions based on test results — and we
ought to be doing that — we have to make
important decisions about how we are
going to ensure their trustworthiness," said
Daria Hall, director of K-12 policy with the
nonprofit Education Trust.
"That means districts and states taking
ownership of the test security issue in a
way that they haven't to date."
In nine districts — Atlanta, Baltimore,
Dallas, Detroit, East St. Louis, Ill., Gary,
Ind., Houston, Los Angeles and Mobile
County, Ala. — scores careened so u
npredictably that the odds of such
dramatic shifts occurring without an
intervention such as tampering were
virtually zero, the newspaper found.
In Houston, test results for entire grades of
students jumped two, three or more times
the amount expected in one year, the
analysis showed. When children moved to a
new grade the next year, their scores
plummeted — a finding that suggests the
gains were not due to learning.
"These findings are concerning," U.S.
Secretary of Education Arne Duncan said in
a statement after being briefed on the
AJC's analysis. He added that "states,
districts, schools and testing companies
should have sensible safeguards in place to
ensure tests accurately reflect student
learning."
Many school district officials contacted by
the AJC disputed any conclusion that
cheating was to blame for the swings.
Some school leaders attributed steep gains
to exemplary teaching. But experts said
instruction isn't likely to move scores to the
degree seen in the AJC's
nonprofit Education Trust.
"That means districts and states taking
ownership of the test security issue in a
way that they haven't to date."
In nine districts — Atlanta, Baltimore,
Dallas, Detroit, East St. Louis, Ill., Gary,
Ind., Houston, Los Angeles and Mobile
County, Ala. — scores careened so u
npredictably that the odds of such
dramatic shifts occurring without an
intervention such as tampering were
virtually zero, the newspaper found.
In Houston, test results for entire grades of
students jumped two, three or more times
the amount expected in one year, the
analysis showed. When children moved to a
new grade the next year, their scores
plummeted — a finding that suggests the
gains were not due to learning.
"These findings are concerning," U.S.
Secretary of Education Arne Duncan said in
a statement after being briefed on the
AJC's analysis. He added that "states,
districts, schools and testing companies
should have sensible safeguards in place to
ensure tests accurately reflect student
learning."
Many school district officials contacted by
the AJC disputed any conclusion that
cheating was to blame for the swings.
Some school leaders attributed steep gains
to exemplary teaching. But experts said
instruction isn't likely to move scores to the
degree seen in the AJC's
analysis.
Cheating is one of only a few plausible
explanations for such dramatic changes in
scores for so many students within a
district, said James Wollack, a University of
Wisconsin-Madison expert in testing and
cheating who reviewed the newspaper's
analysis.
"I can say with some confidence," he said,
"cheating is something you should be
looking at."
In each state, the newspaper used statistics
to identify unusual score jumps and drops
on state math and reading tests by grade
and school. Declines can signal cheating
the previous year. The calculations also
took into account other factors that can
lead to big score shifts, such as small
classes and dramatic changes in class size.
The newspaper also developed a statistical
method to identify school systems with far
more unusual tests than expected, which
could signal endemic cheating similar to
Cheating is one of only a few plausible
explanations for such dramatic changes in
scores for so many students within a
district, said James Wollack, a University of
Wisconsin-Madison expert in testing and
cheating who reviewed the newspaper's
analysis.
"I can say with some confidence," he said,
"cheating is something you should be
looking at."
In each state, the newspaper used statistics
to identify unusual score jumps and drops
on state math and reading tests by grade
and school. Declines can signal cheating
the previous year. The calculations also
took into account other factors that can
lead to big score shifts, such as small
classes and dramatic changes in class size.
The newspaper also developed a statistical
method to identify school systems with far
more unusual tests than expected, which
could signal endemic cheating similar to
what occurred in Atlanta. In its approach,
the score analysis used conservative
measures that highlighted extremes. The
methodology is more likely to overlook
possible indications of cheating than to
suggest problems where none exist.
The newspaper's methodology was
reviewed by outside experts.
The AJC's analysis suggests that tens of
thousands of children may have been
harmed by inflated scores that could have
kept them from getting the academic help
they needed.
In 2010 alone, the grade-wide reading
scores of 24,618 children nationwide —
enough to populate a mid-sized school
district — swung so improbably that the
odds of it happening by chance were less
than 1 in 10,000.
Experts said the findings warrant deeper
investigation at the local level.
Statistical checks for highly improbable
scores are like medical tests, said Gary
Phillips, a vice president and chief scientist
for the large nonprofit the American
Institutes for Research, who advised the
AJC on its methodology.
"This is a broad screening," he said. "If you
find something, you're supposed to go to
the doctor and follow up with a more
detailed diagnostic process."
the score analysis used conservative
measures that highlighted extremes. The
methodology is more likely to overlook
possible indications of cheating than to
suggest problems where none exist.
The newspaper's methodology was
reviewed by outside experts.
The AJC's analysis suggests that tens of
thousands of children may have been
harmed by inflated scores that could have
kept them from getting the academic help
they needed.
In 2010 alone, the grade-wide reading
scores of 24,618 children nationwide —
enough to populate a mid-sized school
district — swung so improbably that the
odds of it happening by chance were less
than 1 in 10,000.
Experts said the findings warrant deeper
investigation at the local level.
Statistical checks for highly improbable
scores are like medical tests, said Gary
Phillips, a vice president and chief scientist
for the large nonprofit the American
Institutes for Research, who advised the
AJC on its methodology.
"This is a broad screening," he said. "If you
find something, you're supposed to go to
the doctor and follow up with a more
detailed diagnostic process."
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