A College Degree Can Pay Off—But Your Major and University Make a Huge Difference

SCHOOL LEADERSHIP 2.0 | SUMMARY FOR EDUCATORS

Original article: “A College-by-College Guide to Which Majors Pay Off — or Don’t” Authors: Arfa Momin and Ron Lieber Source: The New York Times | October 7, 2026

THE BIG IDEA

For decades, educators have encouraged students to attend college as a pathway to financial security and professional opportunity. But new research reveals a more complicated picture: The financial return on a college education depends enormously on what students study and where they study it.

Drawing on an analysis by the HEA Group of nearly 25,000 bachelor's degree programs, Momin and Lieber demonstrate that graduates of some programs earn several times more than graduates of others just four years after completing their degrees.

The findings raise important questions about college affordability, institutional prestige, career preparation, and the responsibility of high schools to provide students with meaningful information about postsecondary choices.

Perhaps most importantly, the research challenges a familiar assumption: Attending a prestigious university does not necessarily guarantee better earnings, and attending a lesser-known institution does not necessarily limit financial success.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

1. Earnings vary dramatically by major and institution.

The contrast is extraordinary. Duke mathematics graduates had median earnings of $297,029, while Juilliard music graduates had median earnings of $32,842. However, the Duke figure represents only 17 graduates who received federal financial aid, an important limitation when interpreting the results.

2. Prestige matters—but not equally for every major.

Carnegie Mellon computer science graduates earned roughly $150,000 more than University of Alabama computer science graduates. Yet the difference between the institutions' mechanical engineering graduates was only about $10,000.

3. Lesser-known institutions can deliver outstanding financial returns.

Nursing graduates from several California institutions, including San Francisco State and California State University, East Bay, earned approximately $150,000 annually. These programs rivaled some of the country's most prestigious universities.

4. Liberal arts degrees still offer financial value.

The median earnings of English majors were $48,920, and sociology majors earned $52,197—both higher than the reported $34,808 median for high school graduates. A degree's value cannot be judged solely by whether its graduates become wealthy.

5. New federal accountability measures may reshape college choices.

Under legislation enacted in 2025, programs whose graduates consistently fail to earn more than the relevant high school earnings benchmark could lose eligibility for federal direct student loans. The article reports that approximately 2% of institutions could be at risk under current earnings patterns.

6. Salary is only one measure of educational success.

The article acknowledges that colleges also foster intellectual growth, citizenship, relationships, creativity, and personal fulfillment. These outcomes matter, even though they are much more difficult to quantify.

WHY IT MATTERS FOR SCHOOL LEADERS

High school counselors and administrators face a growing responsibility to help students make informed postsecondary decisions.

Traditional college counseling has often emphasized admissions rates, selectivity, and institutional reputation. The new research suggests that schools should give equal attention to program-level earnings, tuition costs, financial aid, debt, and long-term career opportunities.

Students from families unfamiliar with higher education may particularly benefit from access to transparent financial information.

However, school leaders must also guard against reducing college and career guidance to a simple salary competition. Students' interests, talents, values, and aspirations deserve consideration alongside earning potential.

Furthermore, these figures are descriptive, not proof that particular colleges or majors cause higher incomes. They reflect earlier graduating cohorts, exclude students who did not receive federal aid, and do not fully account for graduate education or regional living costs.

LEADERSHIP ACTIONS

1. Modernize college counseling. Introduce program-specific earnings information alongside traditional admissions and graduation data.

2. Teach financial literacy. Help students compare net college costs, borrowing, expected earnings, and possible debt repayment.

3. Broaden students' horizons. Highlight high-value programs at public universities, regional colleges, and less-famous institutions.

4. Engage families earlier. Begin meaningful postsecondary planning well before senior year, ideally during middle school.

5. Protect student choice. Encourage students to consider financial realities without dismissing careers in education, the arts, public service, or other less-lucrative fields.

LEADER REFLECTION

Are we helping students get into college, or are we helping them make thoughtful decisions about which college—and which course of study—will best serve their futures?

The distinction may be one of the most important questions facing today's high school leaders.