Source: Kara Arundel, “School shootings dropped in 2025. Here’s what to know for 2026.”K-12 Dive, Jan. 12, 2026.
In her January 2026 article for K-12 Dive, Kara Arundel reports that school shootings across U.S. K-12 campuses declined significantly in 2025, reaching their lowest point in five years. According to the K-12 School Shooting Database, 233 school shootings occurred in 2025—down from a peak of 352 in 2023 and below the 276 incidents recorded in 2024. Although definitions of “school shooting” vary, the database defines incidents broadly as any time a firearm is fired, brandished with intent, or when a bullet strikes school property at any time or for any reason.
A similar downward trend appeared in victim statistics. In 2025, 148 individuals were injured or killed on school grounds, compared to 276 in 2024. Other national trackers reflect the same pattern: Everytown for Gun Safety counted 159 campus gunfire incidents in 2025 (53 deaths, 148 injuries), compared to 229 in 2024.
Uncertain Causes, Real Trends
Despite promising declines, experts caution against attributing the drop to any singular cause. David Riedman—founder of the K-12 School Shooting Database and researcher at Idaho State University—emphasizes that crime data must be interpreted over decades, not months, to identify meaningful patterns. School safety expert Ken Trump similarly warns that “nobody knows exactly for sure,” noting that even highly credentialed analysts disagree.
Nonetheless, Trump highlights that today’s schools are better equipped than those of decades past. He points to improved collaboration with law enforcement, enhanced infrastructure, and expanded student mental health supports as helpful long-term shifts. These developments, he notes, did not exist in the same form when he entered the field over forty years ago, nor during the post-Columbine era when school security concerns first became mainstream.
Still, the context of school violence is changing. Safety threats increasingly include unpredictable or “atypical” scenarios such as confrontations among parents at school events or unfamiliar adults attempting unauthorized entry—events that extend beyond traditional active-shooter paradigms.
The Hidden Layer: Mental Health Impact
Arundel’s reporting also cites March 2025 research from KFF highlighting that school shootings carry widespread psychological effects, even when few physical injuries occur. From 1999–2004, 19 students per 100,000 experienced exposure to a school shooting (defined as proximity or connection to an event). Between 2020–2024, that number rose to 51 per 100,000. Details vary significantly by state: Delaware and Washington D.C. exceed 350 per 100,000 students, while other states fall far lower.
These exposures correlate with anxiety, trauma, and suicide risk among school-aged youth—revealing that while shootings constitute a small proportion of overall gun violence, their ripple effects across school communities are disproportionately harmful.
Guidance for Schools in 2026: “Less Is More”
Looking ahead, Arundel highlights Trump’s guidance for school systems: avoid unrealistic expectations, avoid performative “security theater,” and instead strengthen three core capacities:
Situational Awareness
Adults must be actively present—not distracted—during supervision. Technology is not a substitute for adult awareness.
Recognition of Abnormal Patterns
Educators have a strong intuition for changes in behavior, environment, or routines. Students and staff should be encouraged to trust and act upon valid concerns, rather than dismiss them out of fear of being wrong or offensive.
Empowered Decision-Making Under Stress
Staff need permission and training to make judgment calls, even without perfect information. Freezing during emergencies can be more dangerous than making an imperfect decision.
Trump also advises against investing in highly visible security technologies without integrating them into coherent protocols. Systems that look impressive but do not change staff behavior or decision-making contribute little to actual safety.
Conclusion
For educators, the key takeaway is both hopeful and practical: while national school shooting numbers may be declining, schools must continue prioritizing awareness, preparedness, and student mental health without relying on security optics alone. Effective prevention is quiet, consistent, and rooted in human relationships—not gadgets.
School shootings dropped in 2025. Here’s what to know for 2026.
by Michael Keany
Jan 13
Summary for Educators
Source: Kara Arundel, “School shootings dropped in 2025. Here’s what to know for 2026.” K-12 Dive, Jan. 12, 2026.
In her January 2026 article for K-12 Dive, Kara Arundel reports that school shootings across U.S. K-12 campuses declined significantly in 2025, reaching their lowest point in five years. According to the K-12 School Shooting Database, 233 school shootings occurred in 2025—down from a peak of 352 in 2023 and below the 276 incidents recorded in 2024. Although definitions of “school shooting” vary, the database defines incidents broadly as any time a firearm is fired, brandished with intent, or when a bullet strikes school property at any time or for any reason.
A similar downward trend appeared in victim statistics. In 2025, 148 individuals were injured or killed on school grounds, compared to 276 in 2024. Other national trackers reflect the same pattern: Everytown for Gun Safety counted 159 campus gunfire incidents in 2025 (53 deaths, 148 injuries), compared to 229 in 2024.
Uncertain Causes, Real Trends
Despite promising declines, experts caution against attributing the drop to any singular cause. David Riedman—founder of the K-12 School Shooting Database and researcher at Idaho State University—emphasizes that crime data must be interpreted over decades, not months, to identify meaningful patterns. School safety expert Ken Trump similarly warns that “nobody knows exactly for sure,” noting that even highly credentialed analysts disagree.
Nonetheless, Trump highlights that today’s schools are better equipped than those of decades past. He points to improved collaboration with law enforcement, enhanced infrastructure, and expanded student mental health supports as helpful long-term shifts. These developments, he notes, did not exist in the same form when he entered the field over forty years ago, nor during the post-Columbine era when school security concerns first became mainstream.
Still, the context of school violence is changing. Safety threats increasingly include unpredictable or “atypical” scenarios such as confrontations among parents at school events or unfamiliar adults attempting unauthorized entry—events that extend beyond traditional active-shooter paradigms.
The Hidden Layer: Mental Health Impact
Arundel’s reporting also cites March 2025 research from KFF highlighting that school shootings carry widespread psychological effects, even when few physical injuries occur. From 1999–2004, 19 students per 100,000 experienced exposure to a school shooting (defined as proximity or connection to an event). Between 2020–2024, that number rose to 51 per 100,000. Details vary significantly by state: Delaware and Washington D.C. exceed 350 per 100,000 students, while other states fall far lower.
These exposures correlate with anxiety, trauma, and suicide risk among school-aged youth—revealing that while shootings constitute a small proportion of overall gun violence, their ripple effects across school communities are disproportionately harmful.
Guidance for Schools in 2026: “Less Is More”
Looking ahead, Arundel highlights Trump’s guidance for school systems: avoid unrealistic expectations, avoid performative “security theater,” and instead strengthen three core capacities:
Situational Awareness Adults must be actively present—not distracted—during supervision. Technology is not a substitute for adult awareness.
Recognition of Abnormal Patterns Educators have a strong intuition for changes in behavior, environment, or routines. Students and staff should be encouraged to trust and act upon valid concerns, rather than dismiss them out of fear of being wrong or offensive.
Empowered Decision-Making Under Stress Staff need permission and training to make judgment calls, even without perfect information. Freezing during emergencies can be more dangerous than making an imperfect decision.
Trump also advises against investing in highly visible security technologies without integrating them into coherent protocols. Systems that look impressive but do not change staff behavior or decision-making contribute little to actual safety.
Conclusion
For educators, the key takeaway is both hopeful and practical: while national school shooting numbers may be declining, schools must continue prioritizing awareness, preparedness, and student mental health without relying on security optics alone. Effective prevention is quiet, consistent, and rooted in human relationships—not gadgets.
Original Article
Arundel, Kara. “School shootings dropped in 2025. Here’s what to know for 2026.” K-12 Dive, Jan. 12, 2026. https://www.k12dive.com/news/school-shootings-dropped-in-2025/
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Prepared with the assistance of AI software
OpenAI. (2025). ChatGPT (4) [Large language model]. https://chat.openai.com
Citation: Arundel, Kara. “School shootings dropped in 2025. Here’s what to know for 2026.” K-12 Dive, Jan. 12, 2026. https://www.k12dive.com/news/school-shootings-dropped-in-2025/